about Jim Scott

This film, which is showing in our local indie house, was a barker from moment one. Common, predictable and a too loud and trite soundtrack.  Save the $8.

I was showing some real estate over in the environs of 30th and University and had to kill some time. There are some interesting shops and coffee houses that appear to be gaining some traction.  This neighborhood, it should be remembered, really went into the dumper during the ugly recession of 1991-1994.  Affairs seem to be doing quite nicely today even given the economic mess we are in. I would particularly recommend Cafe Calabira on 30th just north of University. Think of it as a micro-roaster and cafe. The food and coffee are first rate and of course it has all of the North Park hip crowd in attendance.

I know a lot of people wrote the area off when several condo projects faltered and REI abandoned their effort at urban pioneering.  It is clear to me that during the next up-cycle, this could be a very good place to invest, particularly in commercial property.

I am getting a bit tired of losing out trying to buy homes for clients that are priced under $500,000. I suspect people are finally getting some confidence in their own personal economies.  At some point there will be a consensus that the market has bottomed and then we should see a return to a better marketplace. And by a better marketplace I am not thinking of any meaningful appreciation but rather a return to a normal marketplace not dominated by distressed and bank sales. Appreciation is a given from that point(from when the price levels stabilize), but the rate should remain in single digits for at least the next five to seven years.

No matter how you think of his policies, you cannot doubt our President’s considerable political skills. I am referring to his announcement his new Supreme Court nominee. The GOP, eager to court Hispanics in 2010, now find themselves in a real corner. I suspect they will have to swallow their distaste for the nominee’s views on social issues and judicial activism and approve the choice. There is, however, potential for a real internecine gang fight. The hearings will be the first real skirmish in the War for the Republican soul.  Moderates within the party, who have been marginalized over the past few years, are going to have their future status largely determined by this battle. This will be political theatre at its’ finest.

After you become a parent, this holiday takes on another meaning.  You begin to look at this kind of  loss through the eyes of the survivors.  

About twenty years ago I sold a house in Mission Hills , a modest bungalow just down the block from where I live. The seller was a pleasant and reclusive widow; our realtionship consisted of an occasional wave and sidewalk greeting.  Once inside her home it was clear she had created a space frozen in time; her life had clearly stopped on some day around 1943 when the telegram arrived.  It was if she wanted to will time to  move one day, the day before the news arrived. But as I did not have children at that time, the tableau vivant did not resonate with me as it would today.  Now I get it.

If you are in Escondido, you can find Karne Asada. There is a market and food stall on about the 1200 block of East Valley Parkway that is not to be missed. It is called Kennedy Karne. We inquired, while dropping in for some Karne Asada, about the whereabouts of Mr. Kennedy among a sea of people clearly not of Irish descent.

It seems the original owner, whose name was not Kennedy, opened the store in 1961 and was a real fan of JFK.  The current owner was more than happy to fill in the long history of the place and was proud of the fact it was named for President Kennedy.

The food and prices were great and the workers more than friendly, so if you are in Escondido(don’t ask why I was there) this place is not to be missed. They have a $4.95 special every day that is a very filling plate of excellent Mexican food.

I want to say a few words about my friend Earl Smith on this Memorial Day. Earl shared a suite with me for about six months in 1966 when both of us were learning to be Marine platoon commanders.  If he had lived, and not run up that dry stream bed that January day and crossed paths with some frightened 18-year peasant with an AK-47, we would be fast friends today. I know this to betrue. His dogged optimism, unwavering loyalty and general good humor were traits I loved them and would cherish today. Earl was the kind of guy who thought drawing the ham-and-mothers meal was not such a bad deal.  

He was a good friend and our common experience and brief friendshipmeans something to me 43 years later. Others, on this weekend, should recognize the ideaof Earl, one whose personal courage and commitment was in stark contrast to my ambivalence and uncertainty about that adventure. The hardest thing for me to swallow is knowing it was all for nothing. Had another course been chosen would your life be any different today?

Several clients have asked me this important question; are we as a nation going into collective consumer rehab?  Has The Great Recession taught us the difference between buying what we need and what we crave? There are serious implications for real estate if this is so. Consumer spending is 70% of the our GDP and as you know, Americans are throwing around money like manhole covers and the result is plenty of business closures. The tale of Circuit City and the like may continue to occur with ample collateral damage, both economic and social.

The press has had a field day with this question and the prevailing view seems to be there will be meaningful social and economic change ahead. History would suggest that this is so. The event, while not rising to the level of a depression, is certainly no garden-variety recession.  We may want to spend and lust for new goodies but the hard reality is that we may not be able to afford it.

Much of the recently-deflated bubble was based on a self-perpetuating cycle of debt and spending.  Debt was enabled by rising home values and the real villain in this drama, the home equity line of credit. Banks operated like drug dealers and got Americans addicted to cheap and easy credit. Now, like the common heroin addict, we are going cold turkey. Once we are through this process, I suspect we will slip back into our old habits. Some people need to learn their lessons a few times.

It is getting warmer and the days longer. Each year I usually do not need a calendar to let me know school is out as the buyers all head for the beach. In the past, this has followed the usual period I call the Spring Follies. This is the period from February through May when most contracts are let and the inventories plunge.

For many reasons the Follies was cancelled this year. We gave a party and no one showed up. I always need to remind my real estate agents that they are doing a good job; it is just that no one seem to want what we are selling.

The bottom of the market is red-hot and presumably will remain so for the rest of the year. The $8,000 Federal tax credit and low mortgage rates(also courtesy of the Fed) have certainly helped out, but what has really driven this market is value pricing.

Here in Mission Hills the sellers are not following the pricing lead of those beneath them. I suspect there are many reasons for this but the prime suspect is that our group of sellers is financially set-for now that is.

I am starting, at long last, my Alfa Romeo Alfetta/Sprint Veloce Register. I want to find out how many of these under-appreciated cars are left. I assume about 400 or so in this country. For those non-car people, it was made from 1975-1979 and I have one. A good one. Check the blog I started on the car.